<p class="ql-block"> 棋界高度關(guān)注的獎(jiǎng)金高達(dá)250萬(wàn)美元的國(guó)際象棋世界冠軍爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)即將揭開(kāi)戰(zhàn)幕，萬(wàn)眾矚目！當(dāng)今世界冠軍丁立人能衛(wèi)冕嗎？印度18歲的挑戰(zhàn)者古克什能否挑戰(zhàn)成功？成為世界有史以來(lái)最年輕的世界冠軍？</p><p class="ql-block"> 棋界眾高人和媒體眾說(shuō)紛紜，有粉絲立挺丁立人，而印度國(guó)際象棋迷則為古克什搖旗吶喊！</p><p class="ql-block"> 國(guó)內(nèi)外棋迷自費(fèi)買(mǎi)好機(jī)票去新加坡欣賞這場(chǎng)大決戰(zhàn)！</p><p class="ql-block">你覺(jué)得誰(shuí)的勝面大？歡迎留言預(yù)測(cè)！</p> <p class="ql-block">蕭冠軍對(duì)兩位棋手的剖析：</p><p class="ql-block">丁立人與挑戰(zhàn)者印度古克什分析</p><p class="ql-block">年齡：丁立人 生于1992年，現(xiàn)年32歲，古克什 生于2006年，現(xiàn)年18歲。</p><p class="ql-block">國(guó)際等級(jí)分：丁立人 2018年國(guó)際等縱分達(dá)到2816的當(dāng)時(shí)世界排第二的高峰。而今僅2728分，排列世界第23位 。</p><p class="ql-block">古克什現(xiàn)在是2783分，世界排名第5位。</p><p class="ql-block">丁立人等級(jí)分比古克什低了55分。</p><p class="ql-block">性格：丁立人——沉穩(wěn)。古克什——?jiǎng)倧?qiáng)</p><p class="ql-block">技術(shù)特點(diǎn)：丁立人細(xì)膩，擅長(zhǎng)局面型，殘局功夫深。</p><p class="ql-block">古克什——攻擊力強(qiáng)，既有卡斯帕羅夫的戰(zhàn)術(shù)手段，既有拉爾森對(duì)局面分析的敏銳。</p><p class="ql-block">世界冠軍對(duì)抗賽的經(jīng)驗(yàn)：丁立人2023年同涅波爭(zhēng)奪世界冠軍有多盤(pán)戰(zhàn)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，而古克什還沒(méi)有。</p><p class="ql-block">賽前熱身：</p><p class="ql-block">丁立人在2024年7月奧賽后，閉門(mén)修煉，全身心備戰(zhàn)。</p><p class="ql-block">古克什今年賽事不斷，候選人賽奪冠，奧賽又是在頭臺(tái)獲9分高分，精力充沛。</p> <p class="ql-block">《歐洲國(guó)際象棋》11月刊：丁立人有機(jī)會(huì)挽救他的世界桂冠嗎？</p><p class="ql-block"> 前世界亞軍卡姆斯基認(rèn)為：古克什顯然是最大的熱門(mén)，但比賽并無(wú)定論?？匪够踔琳J(rèn)為丁立人有很大機(jī)會(huì)保住自己的冠軍稱(chēng)號(hào)！</p> <p class="ql-block"><br></p><p class="ql-block">特級(jí)大師愛(ài)德華為兩位決賽選手交出了成績(jī)單。</p><p class="ql-block">開(kāi)局、殘局、心理、戰(zhàn)術(shù)、戰(zhàn)略：他有條不紊地分析了丁立人和古克什的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)，然后給出了自己的預(yù)測(cè)。</p> <p class="ql-block">各路大師預(yù)測(cè)：</p><p class="ql-block">印度媒體認(rèn)為古克什勝面大。</p> <p class="ql-block"> 古克什談丁立人</p><p class="ql-block">他說(shuō)：“我們都是強(qiáng)手，都屬于頂尖選手--現(xiàn)在做預(yù)測(cè)沒(méi)有意義了。”但我們已經(jīng)很久沒(méi)有看到丁立人的最佳狀態(tài)了（在比賽中一閃而過(guò)）。2018 年在格魯吉亞巴統(tǒng)舉行的上一屆奧賽上，他是奪得團(tuán)體金牌和個(gè)人一臺(tái)金牌的選手，但這一次他給人留下了蒼白的印象。</p> <p class="ql-block">世界頭號(hào)棋手卡爾森則直言，丁立人從2020年疫情開(kāi)始，久疏戰(zhàn)埸，競(jìng)技狀況下降，很難恢復(fù)到他高嶧時(shí)水平！</p> <p class="ql-block">新加坡《海峽時(shí)報(bào)》載文：</p><p class="ql-block">世界棋王丁立人：“已走出低谷，世界冠軍賽將全力以赴！”</p><p class="ql-block">Ding's peers, such as Norway's world No. 1 Magnus Carlsen, and netizens have said that Ding is "not the same player" any more. It was also reported that the Chinese grandmaster has been struggling with mental health issues.</p><p class="ql-block">世界第一挪威卡爾森等丁立人的同行以及網(wǎng)民都表示,丁立人"已不再是從前的那個(gè)棋手了"。有報(bào)道稱(chēng),這位中國(guó)特級(jí)大師一直在與心理健康問(wèn)題作斗爭(zhēng)。</p> <p class="ql-block">The 31-year-old said: "It doesn't seem like I've been playing the way I used to… and their assessment is correct and I don't know if I will ever reach that level again."</p><p class="ql-block">這位31歲的棋手說(shuō):"我似乎已經(jīng)不像以前那樣下棋了...他們的評(píng)價(jià)是正確的,我不知道我是否還能再次達(dá)到那個(gè)水平。"</p> <p class="ql-block">Ding, who took a nine-month break after becoming world champion in April 2023 by beating Russia's Ian Nepomniachtchi, shared that he has seen a psychologist for his mental state.</p><p class="ql-block">丁立人在2023年4月?lián)魯《砹_斯棋手揚(yáng)·涅波姆尼亞奇成為世界冠軍后,休息了9個(gè)月。他透露,他因心理狀況而咨詢(xún)過(guò)心理醫(yī)生。</p> <p class="ql-block">新華社記者專(zhuān)訪(fǎng)丁立人：</p><p class="ql-block"> 丁立人年滿(mǎn)32歲，而棋盤(pán)對(duì)面的古克什今年剛剛18歲。對(duì)此丁立人表示：“他的最大特點(diǎn)就是年輕，有史以來(lái)最年輕的挑戰(zhàn)者，水平非常高，是很難對(duì)付的對(duì)手。雖然我對(duì)他的歷史交手戰(zhàn)績(jī)還不錯(cuò)，在常規(guī)的慢棋賽中是2勝1和，占據(jù)上風(fēng)，但這一次他肯定是有備而來(lái)，可能會(huì)有一些驚喜等待著我?！?lt;/p><p class="ql-block"> 談及自己的優(yōu)勢(shì)，他說(shuō)：“我可能因?yàn)橄碌帽容^多，各種類(lèi)型的局面都遇到過(guò)，比他經(jīng)驗(yàn)要豐富一點(diǎn)。然后我下過(guò)一次對(duì)抗賽，可能知道怎么樣避免在開(kāi)局階段的緊張，然后可能會(huì)比他先進(jìn)入狀態(tài)?！?lt;/p><p class="ql-block"> 關(guān)于剛剛結(jié)束的國(guó)象奧賽，他表示，奧賽的確是冠軍賽前自己的最后一次慢棋比賽，遇到了很多高水平的對(duì)手，是一次不錯(cuò)的熱身?！拔蚁Ｍ涯切](méi)有贏到的棋，等到世界冠軍賽上去贏?！?lt;/p><p class="ql-block"> 印度男隊(duì)此次奪得奧賽冠軍，用丁立人的話(huà)來(lái)說(shuō)，古克什的表現(xiàn)“好得出乎意料”。面對(duì)勢(shì)頭正猛的對(duì)手，他也正在積極備賽，研究了古克什近期所有的對(duì)局。“我知道他大致走什么樣的開(kāi)局，有什么樣的變化，擅長(zhǎng)以及不擅長(zhǎng)什么類(lèi)型的局面。我感覺(jué)他不是特別擅長(zhǎng)在時(shí)間緊張的情況下走子，因?yàn)樗炱宓膶?shí)力不及他的慢棋，但他擅長(zhǎng)一些局面的調(diào)動(dòng)?！?lt;/p><p class="ql-block"> 從曾經(jīng)的挑戰(zhàn)者變?yōu)槭乩拚?，丁立人坦言這屆比賽會(huì)有一些不同?！斑@次可能更多的人會(huì)過(guò)去關(guān)注我的比賽，我的一些同學(xué)和朋友都已經(jīng)說(shuō)好了要去新加坡現(xiàn)場(chǎng)。而且因?yàn)樾录悠码x中國(guó)很近也沒(méi)有時(shí)差，所以在那里比賽就算是半個(gè)主場(chǎng)了，會(huì)受到很熱烈的歡迎。”他同時(shí)也表示：“但從其他方面來(lái)說(shuō)，我這次面臨的考驗(yàn)更加嚴(yán)峻了。對(duì)手現(xiàn)在狀態(tài)非?；馃?，等級(jí)分也直沖2800分，我等級(jí)分這一年來(lái)下降了很多，跟他有了不小的差距，我希望盡力讓這次比賽成為一場(chǎng)勢(shì)均力敵的較量，也希望發(fā)揮出自己的水平。”（新華社 鄭直 王鏡宇）</p><p class="ql-block"><br></p><p class="ql-block">?</p> <p class="ql-block">I feel okay, neither good nor bad. I'm not at my lowest and have walked out of the darkness from the last 1? years… I've moved past that now and I feel like I have been playing decent chess but have not been winning."</p><p class="ql-block">"我感覺(jué)還好,不好不壞。我已經(jīng)不是最低谷了,也走出了過(guò)去一年半的陰霾...我已經(jīng)度過(guò)那段時(shí)期了,我覺(jué)得我下的棋還不錯(cuò),只是沒(méi)有取勝。"</p> <p class="ql-block">He added: "I feel as per normal, the doctor has given some advice (on how to cope). Recently, I have been playing basketball after dinner, trying not to give myself too much stress."</p><p class="ql-block">他補(bǔ)充道:"我感覺(jué)一切正常,醫(yī)生給了一些應(yīng)對(duì)建議。最近,我晚飯后一直在打籃球,盡量不給自己太多壓力。"</p> <p class="ql-block">This test will be extremely difficult as Gukesh is in the form of his life and his Fide rating is getting closer to the 2,800 mark, while my rating has been on the decline and there's quite a gap between him and I."</p><p class="ql-block">"這將是一個(gè)極其艱難的考驗(yàn),因?yàn)楣趴耸舱幱诼殬I(yè)生涯的巔峰狀態(tài),他的等級(jí)分正在接近2800分,而我的等級(jí)分一直在下降,我們之間存在相當(dāng)大的差距。</p> <p class="ql-block">Ding's poor form has been a talking point among the Indian media, with some saying that he will be "massacred" in his title defence.丁立人的糟糕狀態(tài)一直是印度媒體討論的熱點(diǎn),有些人甚至說(shuō)他在衛(wèi)冕戰(zhàn)中會(huì)被"屠殺"。</p><p class="ql-block">But not being the favourite suits him more. He said: "I like the fact that the media are saying this and the feeling of being the underdog. I'll then surprise them."但不被看好反而更適合他。他說(shuō):"我反而喜歡媒體這樣說(shuō),喜歡作為被低估一方的感覺(jué)。到時(shí)候我會(huì)給他們一個(gè)驚喜。"</p> <p class="ql-block">世界頭號(hào)卡爾森直言預(yù)測(cè)比賽</p><p class="ql-block">At just 18 years old, Gukesh aims to become the youngest uncontested world champion ever. He narrowly qualified for the 2024 Candidates Tournament and was not considered one of the favorites going into the event. Past champion and current world number-one Magnus Carlsen gave a harsh prediction about Gukesh's chances:</p><p class="ql-block">For Gukesh, it's very hard to say. I cannot imagine him winning, but I can see him being anywhere from +2 to -5. I think he will certainly win at least a couple of good games but have some fairly bad losses as well. I don't think he will do poorly, but I don't think he will do too well, either. I don't think he fits into either category, but I think he is not quite ready yet to make the leap, and I think it's probably more likely that he will have a bad event than a good event.</p> <p class="ql-block"> 世界頭號(hào)棋手卡爾森嚴(yán)肅分析比賽前景</p><p class="ql-block"> 年僅18歲的Gukesh的目標(biāo)是成為有史以來(lái)最年輕的世界冠軍。</p><p class="ql-block"> 他勉強(qiáng)獲得了2024年候選人錦標(biāo)賽的參賽資格，并沒(méi)有被認(rèn)為是最受歡迎的選手之一。過(guò)去的冠軍，現(xiàn)在世界排名第一的馬格努斯·卡爾森對(duì)古克什的機(jī)會(huì)做出了嚴(yán)厲的預(yù)測(cè)：</p><p class="ql-block"> 對(duì)于Gukesh來(lái)說(shuō)，這很難說(shuō)。我無(wú)法想象他會(huì)贏，但我可以想象他的得分在+2到-5之間。我認(rèn)為他肯定會(huì)贏得至少幾場(chǎng)好比賽，但也會(huì)有一些相當(dāng)糟糕的失利。我認(rèn)為他不會(huì)做得很差，但我也不認(rèn)為他會(huì)做得太好。我認(rèn)為他不符合這兩種情況，但我認(rèn)為他還沒(méi)有完全準(zhǔn)備好邁出這一步，我認(rèn)為他更有可能遭遇糟糕的事件，而不是好的事件。</p> <p class="ql-block">Despite Gukesh's rating advantage, Ding leads their head-to-head history. Ding has defeated Gukesh twice in classical games, with one draw and no losses. Ding's most recent classical victory against Gukesh happened in January in the 2024 Tata Steel Chess tournament.</p> <p class="ql-block"> 盡管古克什在等級(jí)分上有優(yōu)勢(shì)，但丁在歷史上領(lǐng)先于他們。丁在古典比賽中兩次擊敗古克什，一平零負(fù)。丁最近一次對(duì)Gukesh的經(jīng)典勝利發(fā)生在2024年1月的塔塔鋼鐵國(guó)際象棋錦標(biāo)賽上。</p> <p class="ql-block">丁立人能否以柔克剛？低調(diào)是心理暗示，放在弱者地位，歷史上不乏以弱勝?gòu)?qiáng)的戰(zhàn)例。</p><p class="ql-block"> 如果丁立人初始階段能抵住古克什的銳利攻勢(shì)，將戰(zhàn)局拖至中場(chǎng)，丁立人的信心倍增，戰(zhàn)局會(huì)更加難分！</p><p class="ql-block"> 如果慢棋能像上次同涅波世界冠軍爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)中，幾度落后，幾度絕地反擊，比賽會(huì)更加激烈，棋局會(huì)更加精彩！</p><p class="ql-block"> 如果14盤(pán)慢棋能戰(zhàn)成7：7平分秋色，那末，丁立人借快棋優(yōu)勢(shì)，會(huì)衛(wèi)冕成功，給世界一個(gè)驚喜！</p> <p class="ql-block">Despite Ding's historical advantage, most experts expect Gukesh to triumph. </p><p class="ql-block">Overall, since playing the Candidates to qualify for his previous title match, Ding has played 79 classical games and has posted a negative score, with 12 wins, 17 losses, and 50 draws. In that same time span, Gukesh has played 221 games, with 90 wins against only 26 losses and 105 draws. In that time, Ding performed at a rating of 2705 and lost 78 rating points, while Gukesh played at a 2759 level and gained 99 points!</p> <p class="ql-block"> 丁立人與古克什上屆候選人賽以來(lái)的成績(jī)對(duì)比</p><p class="ql-block"> 盡管丁在歷史上有優(yōu)勢(shì)，但大多數(shù)專(zhuān)家預(yù)計(jì)Gukesh將取得勝利。總的來(lái)說(shuō)，自從丁立人他在上一場(chǎng)世界冠軍候選人賽以來(lái)，他參加了79場(chǎng)經(jīng)典比賽，取得了12勝17負(fù)50平的負(fù)比分。</p><p class="ql-block"> 在同樣的時(shí)間里，Gukesh打了221場(chǎng)比賽，90勝26負(fù)105平。</p><p class="ql-block"> 在這段時(shí)間里，丁立人的表現(xiàn)分為2705分，失去了78分，而Gukesh的評(píng)分為2759分，共增加了99分！</p> <p class="ql-block"> 丁立人自從世界冠軍賽以來(lái)，小丁一直在與自己的健康和注意力作斗爭(zhēng)</p><p class="ql-block"> 他對(duì)這些細(xì)節(jié)基本上是保密的，但這影響了他比賽的頻率和水平。在獲得世界冠軍后的18個(gè)月里，丁只打了44場(chǎng)經(jīng)典比賽。他希望在這場(chǎng)比賽中扭轉(zhuǎn)局面，重新找回讓他成為冠軍的狀態(tài)，并為他回到2816分的評(píng)分而努力，并列歷史第10高。</p> <p class="ql-block">Ding is the lowest-ranked world champion of the Elo era. FIDE ratings date back to 1971. In that time there have been eight undisputed world champions. They haven't always been the highest-rated player in the world, but Ding's recent struggles have made him the 21st-ranked player in the world, the only world champion to fall out of the top 10 while he was the champion.</p><p class="ql-block">Ding hasn't been very active in rapid chess recently, but he is currently the second highest-rated rapid player in the world, at 2776, only behind Carlsen. Gukesh's rapid rating is "only" 2654, so if the match goes to tiebreaks, Ding may be the favorite.</p> <p class="ql-block"> FIDE的評(píng)級(jí)可以追溯到1971年。在此期間，有8位無(wú)可爭(zhēng)議的世界冠軍。他們并不總是世界上排名最高的棋手，但丁立人最近的比賽使他等級(jí)分大降，他現(xiàn)在的世界排名已經(jīng)至第23位的棋手，他是唯一一位在世界冠軍期間跌出前十的世界冠軍。</p><p class="ql-block"> 丁立外最近在快速方面并不活躍，但他目前是世界上排名第二的快速棋手，快棋等級(jí)分2776，僅次于卡爾森。Gukesh的快速評(píng)分“只有”2654分，所以如果比賽進(jìn)入快棋加賽階段，丁立人可能是最歡迎的結(jié)果。</p><p class="ql-block">你認(rèn)為誰(shuí)會(huì)贏得這場(chǎng)比賽？請(qǐng)?jiān)谠u(píng)論中告訴我們！</p><p class="ql-block">本文引自《chess.com》</p><p class="ql-block">原作者NMJeremy Kane杰里米 凱恩</p> <p class="ql-block">你認(rèn)為誰(shuí)會(huì)贏得這場(chǎng)比賽？ </p><p class="ql-block">Who do you think will win the match? </p><p class="ql-block">請(qǐng)?jiān)谠u(píng)論中告訴我們！</p><p class="ql-block"> Let us know in the comments!</p> <p class="ql-block">本文引用了新華社記者，憶庭的王滔及業(yè)界chesd.com等外媒的報(bào)導(dǎo)，特致謝！</p>